If you talk to most fans, it's a foregone conclusion that the Cavs are going to make the playoffs this season. But most fans are reactionary bandwagon jumpers who fail to see the big picture. For the 8th straight year, the team is not going to make the playoffs and here are the biggest reasons why:

• The Schedule. A factor often overlooked when predicting the distribution of playoff spots is scheduling. The Cavaliers have yet to play Miami, Charlotte, Philly, New York, New Jersey, New Orleans, Detroit, New York again, Washington, Boston, and finally Atlanta. All these teams are looking to gun down the upstart Cavs. I am not so sure the team is up to the challenge. This definitely is one of the hardest remaining schedules in the NBA--and a likely impediment to Cleveland reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1998. At best I see the Cavaliers wining one, maybe two of these games.
  
  
• Everyone Else. Looking at the standings, right now Washington, Milwaukee, Indiana, Philadelphia, Chicago, Boston, and Orlando are the teams in the rear-view mirror and looking to teach the Cavs a thing or two about making the playoffs. All of these teams have more playoff experience (see my comments below) than us and know how to get it done down the stretch. I haven't checked all of their schedules, but it's hard to imagine that theirs could be any more difficult than the Cavaliers'. These teams are simply not going to be stopped.
  
  
• Precedent. In 2004, when Jim Paxson swung a trade for new starting point guard Jeff McInnis, the team suddenly improved to playoff levels, yet an untimely injury by McInnis left the Cavs lifeless down the stretch and on the outside looking in come playoff time. On February 23, 2005, the Cavaliers were 31-21--the first time the team had been ten games over .500 since 1925 or something. But as you probably remember, the team promptly imploded. Jiri Welsch turned out not to be the savior we all expected, and the team once again missed out on "Let's Get It Started" by one freakin' game. Now we've seen two seasons of demonstrated choking, which is more than enough of a track record to predict future performance. The Cavaliers simply have a mental block on winning. It's like how Rick Ankiel forgot how to pitch, or how the Simpsons stopped being funny.
  
  
• Lack of Playoff Experience. To make a long story short, nobody on the team knows the right way to play: LeBron isn't clutch, Drew Gooden doesn't hustle and can't keep his head in the game, and you can't rely on Ilgauskas down the stretch because he's always in foul trouble. The only player on the roster with playoff experience is Eric Snow, and that simply isn't enough. These kids haven't learned what it takes to win yet.

I don't mean to be completely negative because the Cavaliers obviously have some things going for them, namely having LeBron James. Not to mention the recently acquired Flip Murray, who has been outstanding. At a time when the team desperately needed a second scorer to take shots at the ends of games, Danny Ferry shrewdly made his move. Murray is also an active defender and a great hustler.

But the evidence is right there in front of us and it's simply too great: the Cavs will be watching Round 1 of the 2006 playoffs from home. Luckily, with a decent offseason and some appropriate roster upheaval, they should be in a position to possibly secure a #7 or #8 in 2007. Time will tell.

Here we are at Part 11 in my ongoing investigation into the greatest Cleveland athletes ever to wear each of the jersey numbers. We've had some truly great athletes so far, but unfortunately, as we get into the higher end of the spectrum, the players become a little more obscure. Anyway, on to the honorees!

#100 - Adriano Sacapuntas

Indians, '62-'63

Though in two seasons with the Indians he only received 12 plate appearances, Adriano Sacapuntas went on to enjoy a long career as the star center fielder of the San Pedro Albañiles of the Paraguayan League. Sacapuntas was the first and is still the only Paraguayan baseball player to make it to the major leagues. In Cleveland, his path to a starting spot was blocked by Ty Cline, Vic Davalillo, Willie Tasby, Willie Kirkland and Don Dillard, among a host of others, so after a season and a half of riding the pine the Indians traded Sacapuntas to the Senators for cash. He never appeared in another big league ballgame.

#101 - Leon "Candy Bar" Jefferson

Cavaliers, '73

Though he never scored a point in the NBA, Candy Bar Jefferson was a major fan favorite in Cleveland, not only for his appetizing nickname and his decision to wear #101 (in honor of the number of keys on a standard typewriter keyboard), but for his role as Coach Bill Fitch's designated inbounds pass breaker-upper (a function of Candy Bar's freakishly long arms). You probably remember the fateful play on which Jefferson's promising career was cut short, as Rockets guard Jimmy Walker's inbounds pass struck Candy Bar in the eye, permanently damaging his vision. To this day, we are left to wonder how many championships the Cavs would have won had Jefferson remained in the fold.

#102 - Biscuits McGarnagall

Naps/Indians, '07-'20

Biscuits McGarnagall began his long and storied career with the Indians (then the Naps) as the left-handed hitting platoon partner of second baseman Nap Lajoie. After Lajoie was purchased by the Philadelphia A's in 1915, McGarnagall found himself the starting second baseman for a brief period before Bill Wambsganss took over for good. In 1920, his final season, McGarnagall didn't play much, but the Indians finally won the World Series for the first time in franchise history. It was during the championship celebration that McGarnagall announced his retirement, and player-manager Tris Speaker uttered his famous quote, "This one's for Biscuits."

#103 - John Todeslied

Browns, '46-'49

Though current NFL regulations require jersey numbers in the 100's to be reserved for members of the officiating crew, players in the old AAFC--of which the Browns were a member prior to 1950--were allowed to wear these numbers on their uniforms. John Todeslied was a key contributor to the Cleveland squad that won the AAFC championship in every year of its existence. On offense, he played halfback and tackle, while on defense, he played end, middle guard, and cornerback. He also returned kicks and covered about half of the punting responsibilities. Alas, when the Browns made the transition to the NFL in 1950, Coach Paul Brown cut Todeslied, citing a lack of versatility.

#104 - Abe Kleinschmidt

Cavaliers, '53-'57

No one today really remembers the Cavs of the 50's, and for good reason: they never once made the playoffs. In fact, only one player from those old Cavs rosters had much talent, and that was Abe Kleinschmidt, "the Brooklyn Beanpole". Kleinschmidt led the Cavs in scoring and rebounding every year of his career, which isn't saying much, I realize, but it's all I have to go on. Though he was forced into early retirement by weak knees, he later worked in the Cavs' front office and was key in assembling the legendary 1964 squad that only missed the playoffs by two games.

#105 - Sébastien Leperdant

Barons, '77-'78

When I began this whole Jersey Numbers series, I had no idea I would be delving into the rich history of Cleveland ice hockey to find honorees. The truth is, though, that no Indian, Brown or Cavalier has ever donned #105, oddly enough, and while the Cleveland Barons were not very good during the two seasons they were an NHL team, they had a couple of noteworthy players, one of whom was Sébastien Leperdant, a defenseman. Now, I don't know very much about hockey or hockey statistics, so I kind of have to rely on the opinions of others here. One almanac I found called Leperdant "very adequate" and said he had excellent fight-picking ability. That's good enough for me.

#106 - Skip Chamberlain

Browns, '47

This one was kind of a toss-up between Skip Chamberlain, a messenger guard who appeared in six games for the Browns in 1947, and Dwight Onderzee, a safety who appeared in seven games for the Browns starting in 1946. Interestingly, the two men had a rather public dispute over the rights to wear #106 during training camp in the summer of '47. In the end, Chamberlain had to pay Onderzee $20,000--then something like twelve years' salary--to get him to relinquish the prized jersey number. This leads me to believe that Chamberlain was, at the very least, the more high profile player, so it stands to reason he was the better player. That's why I'm going with him.

#107 - Stan Lavatrici

Indians, '69, '71

Though he spent all of 1970 in the minor leagues working on supposed mechanical flaws, reliever Stan Lavatrici actually pitched pretty well for the Tribe in both 1969 and 1971 before going on to greater renown as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. His ERA+ of 106 in '69 and 102 in '71 made him the fourth-best reliever on the team, both years. Lavatrici was known for his eccentric rituals during games, as he would often bring talismans, snacks, or reading materials with him to the mound. The reading material was especially odd considering he never learned how to read.

#108 - Albert Belle

Indians, '89-'96

Having already been named by me as the greatest #8 in Cleveland sports history, Albert Belle joins Lou Groza (#46 and #76) as one of two athletes so far to have been so honored at two different jersey numbers. You certainly remember Albert in his heyday as #8; what you may not recall is that, as a scrawny rookie in 1989, he opted for #108 because #8 was taken by DH/catcher Mark Salas. That season, Belle hit .225/.269/.394 in 234 plate appearances--not great, and certainly not up to his lofty career standards, but more than good enough to make him the greatest #108 in Cleveland history.

#109 - Richie Summerfield

Cavaliers, '85-'86

Coincidentally, the only man ever to wear #109 for a Cleveland team, Richie Summerfield was nowhere close to being a decent NBA player. How he managed to stay on the Cavs' roster for 27 whole games is a mystery to me. In 1985, his PER of -10.8 made him the worst Cavalier to date. In 1986, he appeared in only 2 games before Coach George Karl released him, but still managed a PER of -17.0, lowering his career rating to an unprecedented -11.3, to accompany a career Player Win Percentage of .001. I almost feel ashamed to dole out this honor to such a horrible player, but he was a jersey number pioneer of sorts, so I guess I should give him some credit.

We here at the Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times are nothing if not obsessed with statistics. In seemingly every post, Corey and I try to include some numbers to back up our arguments. But they're always someone else's statistics. That era is over. I am proud to introduce the first-ever Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times statistic: Runs Accounted For. In baseball, the most essential aspect of the game is winning and losing. But the only way to accumulate wins is to score runs and prevent the other team from scoring. Therefore RAF attempts to quantify the ability of each player at accomplishing those goals.

It's quite simple. Firstly, we measure the amount of offensive output, which is easy. There are two widely available statistics that perfectly describe the number of runs a player has contributed: runs and RBI. So the first equation we have for offense is: R+RBI. However, when a player hits a solo home run he not only notches himself a run but also an RBI, even though only one run scores. So let's adjust the equation to account for this phenomenon--a home run now only counts once: R+RBI-HR.

We further improve equation with the addition of another factor, batting average. A player's batting average is an almost perfect measure of his batting ability. The statistics of runs and RBI are merely dependent on the batting average. If you don't understand, try this example: If Grady Sizemore hits .375 but, because Ben Broussard and Aaron Boone bat before him, no one is ever on base, he'll never accumulate the RBI he rightly deserves. An analogous example can be drawn for runs scored as well, but it would be redundant to state. So, to adjust the equation: BA*(R+RBI-HR). I had to multiply BA such that it would be on the same scale as the other numbers.

Now we need a way to quantify a player's ability to run the bases and move runners along. As we all know, the best way to get into scoring position is to just steal a base. But what if you're at the plate, you can't just steal first base! But you can help move the runners on the merry way by simply putting the ball in play. Striking out is the only guaranteed way to make sure no one scores. A groundout may seem like a bad outcome, but it ain't if it moves a man from second to third. So we need to adjust the formula by giving credit for stolen bases but subtracting for strikeouts: (BA*(R+RBI-HR))^(SB-K)

This may seem peachy, but so far we've ignored almost half of a position player's worth: his fielding! So to account for this facet of the game, let's incorporate fielding percentage, the most accurate representation of a player's skills in the field, to our equation: ((BA*(R+RBI-HR))^(SB-K))*FP

All in all, I'd say we have a pretty nifty way to measure a batter (and fielder's) contribution to his team. Let's take a look at the Indians leaders in Runs Accounted For in 2005:

R.Vazquez   8.000
J.Dubois    0.679
R.Ludwick   0.001
J.Bard      0.000
J.Liefer    2.486 * 10-6
A.Cora      1.501 * 10-7
J.Gerut     3.791 * 10-11
J.Hernandez 6.887 * 10-65
C.Crisp     1.249 * 10-107
R.Belliard  7.311 * 10-111
A.Boone     1.846 * 10-117
V.Martinez  3.377 * 10-126
B.Broussard 5.016 * 10-139
C.Blake     8.451 * 10-159
G.Sizemore  8.670 * 10-187
J.Peralta   2.445 * 10-205
T.Hafner    3.048 * 10-211

This list should be a shocker to most of you; I know I was surprised. First of all, kudos to Mark Shapiro and the rest of the front office for flipping Alex Cora and his pathetic .0000001501 RAF into Ramon Vazquez and his team-leading RAF of 8. Beyond that, there aren't many compliments I can pay to the General Manager. Seven of the top nine performers in our lineup last year (Ludwick, Bard, Liefer, Cora, Gerut, Hernandez, and Crisp) have been jettisoned in favor of young, unproven minor leaguers. The two young stars locked into long-term contracts this off-season, Peralta and Sizemore, now suddenly look to be gigantic, overrated busts, having put together two of the three worst Runs Accounted For totals on the team. With deadweight Travis Hafner pulling the entire lineup down, we can only hope for more dangerous encounters with Mark Buehrle. Or, maybe Eric Wedge will wise up and give playing time to the real heroes of the Tribe like Jason Dubois and Vazquez.

Meanwhile, look for constant RAF updates throughout the 2006 season right here on Mistake by the Lake. This is very exciting for us, as we will now be able to appreciate baseball in a whole new light.