Alejandro QUIROZ FLORES
Graduate Student, Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University
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Contact Info:Alejandro QUIROZ FLORES |
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Education
Ph.D. Candidate, Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University, 2010 (Expected)
Dissertation Title: "The Ministerial Condition: Political Survival and Cabinet Reshuffles"M.A., Wilf Family Department of Politics, New York University, 2006
Dissertation Committee: Nathaniel Beck, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (co-chair), and Alastair Smith (co-chair)
Dissertation Overview
M.Phil., University of Oxford, St. Antony's College, 2003
B.A., Center for Economic Research and Teaching, CIDE, 2001
Supplemental:
Summer Program in Complex Physical, Biological and Social Systems, NECSI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2008
Job Market Profile
I am a specialist in International Relations and the core of my research is devoted to the link between international security and domestic politics. While my primary interests are in this area, my research also spans across Political Methodology and particular aspects of Comparative and American Politics. My research statement contains a more detailed description of my research agenda.International Relations: " An Empirical Examination of War Termination and Leader Change."
Abstract:
Does leader change have an effect on the termination of interstate war? The relationship between war termination and leader change is particularly complex, as both are interdependent. Therefore, in order to "partial out" the effect of leader change, the paper uses simple probability theory to calculate the difference in the likelihood of war termination given leader change and given leader continuation. Estimation results consistently show that a change in leadership is likely to end a country's participation in interstate war. When this event is observed early in the conflict, the war is more likely to end. Nevertheless, once war has progressed and is more firmly entrenched, the marginal effect of leader change diminishes. The evidence also shows that, if there is multiple leader change during war, only the first change in leadership will increase the probability of war termination. The study concludes that systemic factors, realpolitik variables, and domestic political institutions are not the only determinants of war duration. Individual leaders and their tenure in office are equally important in explaining the end of interstate war.
Methodology: " Testing Copula Functions as a Method to Derive Bivariate Weibull Distributions."
Abstract:
This paper presents copula functions as a method to derive bivariate distributions. Copula functions allow for the construction of previously unknown bivariate distributions based on known marginals. This paper uses Weibull marginals to construct six bivariate Weibull distributions suitable for survival analysis. The paper tests the performance of these distributions with a simulation experiment. The results from the experiment show that all bivariate distributions perform as well or better than the marginal distribution. Furthermore, some bivariate distributions perform better than others. However, performance is not the only element to consider in the selection of a distribution. The structure of dependence between marginals and estimation complexity are also key criteria for the selection of the right copula.
Research
Interests:
International Relations (International Security, War, Domestic Determinants of International Relations, Political Survival)
Methodology (Econometrics, particularly Limited Dependent Variables, Survival Analysis, Copula Functions, and Spatial Models)
Latin America (International Relations of Latin America, War, Territorial Disputes, Organized Crime)
Publications:
2009. "The Political Survival of Foreign Ministers." Foreign Policy Analysis 5 (2): 117 - 133.
Articles under review:
2009. "An Empirical Examination of War Termination and Leader Change."
2009. "Testing Copula Functions as a Method to Derive Bivariate Weibull Distributions."
2009. "Leader Survival and Cabinet Change." With Alastair Smith.
2009. "Alliances as/or Contiguity? Spatial Models of Military Expenditures."
Articles in preparation:
"War as a Sign of Incompetence: Leader Survival and Cabinet Reshuffles."
Previous Presentations:
"Testing Copula Functions as a Method to Derive Bivariate Weibull Distributions."
-- Presented at the 2009 Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, Methodology Section.
-- Presented at the New Faces in Political Methodology II Conference, Penn State Quantitative Social Science Initiative.
"A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Cabinet Turnover in the United States." Presented at the 2009 Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, Presidency Research Section.
2009. "Leader Survival and Cabinet Reshuffles." With Alastair Smith. Presented at the 2009 Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, International Relations and Domestic Politics Section.
2009. "Bringing Interdependence (and Geography) Back In: Spatial Interdependence in Military Expenditures." Presented at the 2009 Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, International Security Section.
2009. "Transitioning from Pseudo-Democracy to Democracy: What Happens When the the Puppeteer Leaves?" With Daniel Berger. Presented at the 2009 Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Comparative Politics Section.
2007. "Copula Functions and Bivariate Distributions: Applications to Issues of Political Interdependence." Presented at the 24th Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Poster Session.
2007. "Human Rights, Repression, and the Emergence and Persistence of Rebel Movements: Theory And Estimation." Accepted for the 2007 Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Formal Modeling Section.
2006. "The Power to Remove as Political Survival: Simultaneous Equations in Survival Models." Presented at the 2006 Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, Methodology Section.
2006. "Leader Survival and War." With Leslie N. Johns. Presented at the 2006 Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, Methodology Section.